One Week
My entire world is in a cloud of disbelief. After all this waiting, the Sox are in the World Series? After over a year's worth of closely following the presidential election, there's only seven days til we know who wins (I hope. Please.) Since I did it for the playoffs, I figure I should make my election predictions too. We won't discuss how close I came on my baseball postseason picks, ok?
This post is also motivated by a request for predictions from Hal Meyer's RIPolitics listserv. Hal is like a Republican cartoon character, so he's predicting a landslide for Bush, with spotty losses in RI and MA.
Remember, you can pretty much ignore national polls, because there's no national election. It's all about the electoral college and the swing states. Here's my map (click to enlarge):
You can play with the map for yourself here, among many other places. Predictions are welcome in the comments (I'm not holding my breath)
That's a Kerry win. I think he'll eke out a small plurality in the popular vote, too, based on what I read about turnout and new voters. I think it's clear to most pundits that New Hampshire is not going Bush again, after his decidedly not conservative first term. I put Colorado in the Dem column becuase it's close there and it really shouldn't be. Plus my brother lives in Colorado and I think he's voting Kerry, and he's a white, 30-45 year old father. That's a Bush demographic. I'm switching Nevada and New Mexico from 2000, since NM was so close last time, and because of Yucca Mountain and the urban growth of Las Vegas. Wisconsin goes to Bush because… I don't know why. Security moms and George Bush likes cheese. Whatever. Kerry is going to win Ohio for one reason: jobs (or the lack thereof). There's some hinky stuff going on there now, but in the final count, Ohio is going Dem (and no Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio. Get ready to hear that over and over and over). In Florida, I think more of the people who go to the polls will intend to vote for the Democrat, and once again that won't matter. Florida, close as it may seem today, is locked up for Bush.
So those are the changes I see. Kerry wins 283-255. Unfortunately, there's all sorts of scenarios where we won't know who wins on November 3rd. We could even get a 269-269 tie in the electoral college! (which means Bush wins). Someone is going to get sued in Ohio.
Just as I feel with the Sox, I am cautiously optimistic. Things are looking good for my team(s), but anything can happen, and there's no underestimating the competition. I've read quite a few Bush fans predicting a landslide, which is fine by me. I hope they're so sure of a big win that they stay home. There's an idea out there that a lot of people are lying about supporting Kerry for one reason or another, and once they get into the privacy of the voting booth they'll pull the lever for Bush. I think this is ridiculous, but we'll see. And remember, historically, most undecided voter on election day end up voting for the challenger. And, as they say, all bets are off in the event of another terrorist attack or the capture of Osama bin Forgotten.
It's going to be some week. I promise to have local election stuff before the weekend.
October 26th, 2004 at 5:30 pm
I think its the opposite - people who say they are voting for Bush are actually going to vote for Kerry. In any place where the constitution is considered crap, i.e. the South and the military, people are afraid to say that they don’t support the President. There is probably a good portion of these people who say “I don’t know” or “Bush” just because they’d get stoned if they didn’t. I think they’ll be the ones actually voting Kerry.
October 26th, 2004 at 6:25 pm
hello again!
stopped by the site to say hi, and was amused at the prediction made by bil.
i’m taking a political sci. class this semester, and the professor asked us to make educated guesses on the swing states to see who might win the election. i did so, and came out with much the same outcome as bil. if you look at the swing states’ voting records in the past, it looks like kerry will come out on top if the trends continue. thank god. i did, however, give bush ohio, because they seem to love those republicans (though they liked clinton…), plus i felt bad about giving kerry both big states :0). in my opinion, it all comes down to florida, and after the last election’s fiasco i just can’t see bush winning the state (unless he cheats again…)
well, we’ll see what happens in a week. hopefully i won’t be writing from canada next time…
October 26th, 2004 at 6:33 pm
Well, it’s raining in St. Louis, so you might have time to catch up on election obsessing …
I too have been ignoring it in favor of the Sox. There’s only so much phonebanking you can do, and it’s so much less emotionally taxing to worry about the contest that, cosmic as it may seem, is NOT going to affect the lives of your grandchildren.
Also, at this point, I just can’t imagine what the hell is going to happen. HEre in my little progressive echo chamber of New Haven, CT, where the mayoral election is the Democratic primary and the polls will be quiet and civilized as always, it’s hard to fathom the insanity going down in FL and OH.
October 26th, 2004 at 8:15 pm
I really hope Kerry wins and we get the results ASAP so I can go partay…
P.S.
Gooooo Red Sox!!! too bad I can’t be back north to celebrate
October 26th, 2004 at 9:53 pm
At all the speeches, Kerry’s people looked emotionless. They weren’t pro-Kerry, they were just along for the ride. The Bush crowds are much more enthusiastic. I think that’s very telling. It could be a foreshadowing of the vote.
Bush is also an incumbent, which carries alot of weight.
October 27th, 2004 at 12:09 pm
The Bush crowds sign loyalty oaths. The Kerry crowds are people who are actually coming out to hear what the candidate has to say and are thoughtfully considering their duty as voters.
October 27th, 2004 at 1:52 pm
Bush is also an incumbent, which carries alot of weight.
You got that right. We disagree as to whether or not that’s a good thing. Bush’s approval numbers are below 50% in most polls, which is not a good thing for incumbents.
October 28th, 2004 at 10:35 am
Regarding ‘undecided voters’ and incumbency. If the guy hasn’t done enough in 4 years to make you decide to vote for him, perhaps it’s time for a change.